AGP Executive Report

BRICS Diplomacy & Global Governance: At the New Delhi BRICS summit, Vladimir Putin pushed again for expanding UN Security Council representation for the Global South, arguing multipolar power is shifting toward Asia, Africa and Latin America. India’s Summit Agenda: Narendra Modi framed BRICS as a “rule-shaper,” calling to replace the “pyramid of privilege” with a “platform of partnership,” and proposed a BRICS continuity “troika” mechanism plus a secure digital repository to track implementation. Summit Signaling: Leaders staged high-visibility unity moments, including Modi holding hands with Putin and Xi at Bharat Mandapam, while the New Delhi Declaration was adopted by consensus without de-dollarisation or a common currency. Ukraine War & Winter Pressure: Russian strikes across Ukraine killed civilians and hit infrastructure as Kyiv warned of a “very difficult” winter; Zelenskyy said Russia used nearly 500 drones since morning. Talks at G20 Miami: Zelenskyy said he’s ready to meet Putin at the G20 in Miami; Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Putin can fly to Moscow if Zelenskyy truly wants talks. Security Tensions in Europe: Lithuania reacted to Kremlin “nuclear threats,” while Germany ordered about 150 Russian diplomats and families to leave by Sept. 18. Russia Domestic Economy: Russia’s central bank paused its rate cuts, citing rising price pressures linked to disruptions from the war, including drone attacks on refineries.

BRICS Summit Diplomacy: Putin used BRICS in New Delhi to push UN Security Council expansion for Asia, Africa and Latin America, and to argue global institutions like the IMF, World Bank and WTO need reform as the world shifts toward the Global South. Global Governance Pitch: Modi opened the summit urging a move from a “pyramid of privilege” to a “platform of partnership,” plus a 10-point roadmap and a “Seafarers’ Emergency Support Network” for safer trade routes. India-China Reset: Modi met Xi on the sidelines, stressing border peace so “differences don’t become disputes,” as Xi returned to India for the first time since 2019. Ukraine Peace Talks at G20: Zelensky said he’s ready to meet Putin at the Miami G20 if Russia attends, while the Kremlin still hasn’t confirmed Putin’s trip. Ukraine War Pressure: Russian strikes killed people across multiple regions, while Ukraine hit Russian chemical and drone-related targets, as UN officials warned of a “toughest winter” risk from attacks on power and water. Domestic Political Crackdown: A Siberian court overturned the registration of a Yabloko Duma candidate after an anti-war leaflet dispute, underscoring tightening legal pressure on opposition. EU Sanctions Fight: France joined Slovakia in seeking delisting of sanctioned Russian-linked businessman Alisher Usmanov, adding friction inside the EU sanctions bloc.

BRICS Diplomacy in Delhi: Putin arrived in New Delhi for the 18th BRICS Summit, leaning hard on “business-to-business” ties and a new BRICS growth narrative while pitching an NDB-backed investment platform and attacking Western “system errors” and “ugly” economic coercion, as he also warned Europe that any deployment of troops to Ukraine would mean war with Russia. India-Russia Partnership: Modi and Putin met ahead of the summit, reaffirming the strategic partnership and pushing trade toward $100B by 2030, with Black Sea and West Asia conflict de-escalation and dialogue highlighted. Car Diplomacy & Summit Theater: Their armoured Aurus ride and Putin’s “Flying Kremlin” aircraft drew attention as leaders staged a united front on trade, energy, defence, and connectivity. Energy Pressure: Putin warned European gas prices could jump to $1,500 and tied the risk to attacks on infrastructure and Europe’s pricing demands. War Costs & Security Risks: UK intelligence put Russian troop deaths near 500,000 since the full-scale invasion began, while drone warfare remains a constant threat, underscored by a near-miss involving Zelensky’s aircraft in Moldova. Regional Outreach: Putin also met Egypt’s el-Sisi and Malaysia’s Anwar, agreeing on faster implementation mechanisms for agreements and stressing expanding trade and major projects.

BRICS Diplomacy in Delhi: Ahead of the weekend summit, PM Modi and Vladimir Putin held a fresh bilateral in New Delhi, reaffirming their “special and privileged” partnership and setting a USD 100 billion trade target by 2030, while Modi pressed dialogue and diplomacy and raised Black Sea seafarer safety. Cultural Soft Power: Modi gifted Putin a Russian translation of the Tamil classic Thirukkural, underscoring people-to-people ties alongside defense, energy, space and industrial cooperation. Bloc Under Strain: BRICS leaders are arriving as unity is tested by the US-Iran war and the Ukraine conflict, with Iran’s Pezeshkian urging stronger Global South coordination and economic security. Putin’s Economic Pitch: Putin told the BRICS Business Forum that a NDB-based investment platform could fund trade, logistics and technology, while also claiming Russia is outpacing global growth despite Western sanctions. Ukraine War Costs: UK defense leadership cited 500,000 Russian deaths since 2023 for minimal territorial gains, as drone warfare and strikes continue to endanger civilians and leaders. Russia-Europe Hybrid Tensions: Germany-linked reporting says Russian drone attacks began with disinformation and political influence, now escalating into direct disruption attempts.

BRICS Diplomacy: Vladimir Putin landed in New Delhi for the 18th BRICS summit, his first in-person appearance outside Russia since 2022, with talks with PM Narendra Modi expected to center on trade, energy security, defense, and cross-border payments as Delhi rolls out a heavy security lockdown and separate hotel arrangements for Putin and Xi. Ukraine War Pressure: Ukraine’s forces carried out very long-range drone strikes on Russia’s gas infrastructure, while Western reporting also highlights Russia’s manpower strain and renewed conscription rumors—fueling questions about how long Moscow can sustain its campaign. Covert Conflict in Europe: A leaked memo claims Western special-operations veterans have been recruited to train Russians for fighting in Ukraine at camps in Bulgaria and Serbia, underscoring how the war’s spillover keeps widening beyond the front line. Global South Stakes: BRICS leaders are arriving amid wars in Europe and West Asia, with India pushing a “global welfare” message and the summit framed around resilience in food, energy, health, and supply chains. US Political Fallout: In Washington, a Trump ally overseeing a DOJ “conspiracy” probe resigned after clashes with Justice officials, adding more turbulence to the US political backdrop as Russia courts international leverage.

BRICS Diplomacy: Putin is set to arrive in New Delhi for the Sept. 12-13 summit, with a key Modi bilateral on Sept. 11 and multiple other side meetings flagged by the Kremlin as India hosts leaders including Xi and Pezeshkian. Defense & Industry: Russia is pushing a broad agenda with India ahead of BRICS—joint production and upgrades tied to Su-57/S-400/S-500 and more—while Russian IL-76 and other military aircraft land in the Delhi-NCR area for summit preparations. Ukraine War Pressure: Russia and Ukraine traded overnight strikes that killed at least three, while Zelenskyy claims new attacks on Russian infrastructure supporting the war, including far-deep Arctic targets. US-Russia Sanctions Fight: A US bill targeting Russian oil and gas buyers faces a make-or-break House vote before midterms, with Ukraine warning the clock is tight. Hybrid Warfare & Security: NATO-linked operations in the Arctic disrupted Russian submarine training aimed at disabling undersea cables; Germany also tightens its “shadow fleet” crackdown. Migration Crackdown: Putin says deportations of undocumented migrants rose 2.6-fold and entry was barred for nearly 200,000 foreigners. Regional Influence: Armenia-Russia parliamentary talks highlight worsening trade restrictions, while Gagauzia’s upcoming elections are framed as another test of Moscow’s sway.

Ukraine War Diplomacy: Trump says Putin wants a deal to end the Ukraine war, but “two people that hate each other” (Putin and Zelenskyy) remain the main obstacle, after fresh US-Russia phone talks. Frontline Pressure & Strikes: Ukraine carried out its deepest drone attack into Russia, hitting Siberian gas facilities, while Russia resumed heavy strikes after a brief pause tied to US envoys’ visits. Kremlin Messaging vs Reality: A Czech expert argues Kremlin talk of “imminent victory” is a cover for internal strain, amplified by Ukrainian deep strikes and election-year propaganda needs. North Korea’s Public Role: Kim Jong Un publicly praised troops serving abroad, signaling Pyongyang’s deeper, more open military involvement with Russia. BRICS & Security Theater: Ahead of BRICS in India, Russia and China leaders’ arrivals are driving major hotel and police security in Delhi, with Russian military aircraft landing at Noida for the first time. Domestic Politics: Yabloko candidates in Kaliningrad report threats ahead of elections, while Kremlin-linked rhetoric and pressure tactics continue to shape the political field. Regional Tensions: Sochi was hit by a Ukrainian sea drone strike, injuring eight and damaging port infrastructure.

Ukraine Peace Push & Strikes: After US envoys’ Moscow-Kyiv shuttle, Putin and Trump held a “constructive, very frank” call, with Russia saying it hopes US-mediated talks resume soon and that Washington’s “peacekeeping” should continue—while strikes hit Kyiv again and drones/missiles killed civilians, including near the Moldova border. US-Russia Diplomacy: Kremlin says Trump wants a swift end to the war and restoration of US-Russia ties; Russia also floated possible trilateral formats (Russia–US–Ukraine) and even a Russia–US–China summit at APEC. Hungary Diplomatic Break: Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats; Moscow vowed a “harsh and painful” response but insisted it remains open to developing ties. EU Politics Shock: Russia accused Germany’s ruling parties of “Russophobia” after AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt win; Merz attacked AfD as siding with Russia. Regional Politics in Russia: Yabloko’s Sverdlovsk leader reportedly left Russia amid arrests; the party faces election pressure. Border Security & Migration Fears: Russia emphasized security along the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border; Georgia saw a surge of Russians amid mobilisation worries. Russia–Vietnam: Putin met Vietnam’s To Lam, stressing security cooperation and deeper bilateral ties. Armenia Trade Row: Armenia appealed Russia’s import restrictions via EEU mechanisms.

Ukraine War Diplomacy: US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin held an hour-long “extremely frank” phone call after US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met in Moscow and Kyiv, with the Kremlin saying Trump urged a swift end to the war and Putin stressed Russia has no hostile plans toward Europe; both sides also discussed prisoner exchanges, but no public breakthrough followed the weekend talks. Kyiv Under Fire: Russia resumed missile and drone strikes on Kyiv after the envoy pause, with reports of deaths and injuries and damage to civilian sites, while Zelensky said airports were hit before the US delegation could arrive. India-Russia Reset: Kremlin says Putin will meet PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi ahead of BRICS, with energy, defence and trade on the agenda, including talk of Su-57 tech transfer and nuclear cooperation. Russia-North Korea Deepening: Xi and Putin sent anniversary messages to Kim Jong-un pledging stronger “strategic” ties as the two countries open their first road bridge, underscoring expanding military cooperation. Europe Political Pressure: Germany’s far-right AfD election win in Saxony-Anhalt is framed as a test for Europe’s Russia policy, while Merkel urged dialogue with Moscow despite condemning Putin’s war. US Domestic Politics: AP reports Trump DOJ escalated subpoenas in a probe tied to the “Russia” investigation, pushing former officials to testify under oath.

Ukraine Peace Push vs. Kyiv Strikes: Russia ended a three-day pause hours after US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner left Kyiv, resuming missile and drone attacks that killed at least two and wounded dozens, while Zelenskyy said the envoys brought “very good” ideas but no breakthrough. US-Russia Phone Diplomacy: A Putin-Trump call followed the visits, with the Kremlin saying Putin stressed Moscow has “no aggressive plans” toward Europe and both sides will stay in contact. Negotiations Hardening: Lavrov and Peskov reiterated Russia is ready to negotiate only on terms tied to “root causes,” warning that delays make outcomes worse. BRICS Pivot to India: Ahead of Putin’s BRICS trip, Peskov confirmed Modi-Putin talks in New Delhi will cover trade and defense, including S-400 deliveries in 2026 and Su-57 discussions. Europe Friction: Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats, prompting Moscow to promise a “harsh and painful” response. Domestic Security Ahead of Duma Vote: Russia tightened security measures as parliamentary elections approach, with officials warning of “hybrid threats” targeting the vote. Russia-North Korea Ties: The first road bridge across the Tumen river opened, underscoring deepening strategic partnership.

Ukraine-Russia Diplomacy: Zelenskyy says Putin may be seeking to give Trump a diplomatic win before US midterms, while US envoys Witkoff and Kushner report “substantive progress” and push for renewed trilateral talks; Russia calls the latest contacts “a small step toward peace,” but Kyiv warns fighting will likely continue into winter. Ceasefire Under Strain: A 72-hour pause on attacks around the envoys’ visits ended as Russia pounded Kyiv with ballistic and cruise missiles, hitting residential areas and sparking fires. Donbas Pace Reality Check: ISW says Putin’s claim of capturing all of Donetsk by end-2026 is unrealistic, with the current advance rate pointing to a much later timeline. Germany-Russia Spat: Russia ordered closure of Germany’s consulate-general and Goethe centers in St. Petersburg in tit-for-tat escalation after Berlin moved against Russian facilities, amid accusations over a Leipzig drone incident. AfD Shockwave in Europe: AfD surged to first place in Saxony-Anhalt, raising fears across Europe about Russia-friendly politics; EU foreign chief Kaja Kallas warned of rising Russian hybrid threats and sabotage risks ahead of Duma elections. North Korea-Russia Ties: Pyongyang and Moscow opened their first road bridge over the Tumen River, underscoring deepening strategic cooperation. Russia Domestic Pressure: Russia’s Central Bank reported a record $12.2B “unaccounted” capital outflow, while reports also highlight tighter travel restrictions for reservists.

Russia–North Korea Military-Logistics Boost: North Korea and Russia opened their first road bridge over the Tumen River, with Mishustin and Pak Thae Song speaking by video as trucks crossed—turning a long-discussed project into a new symbol of deepening ties and a faster supply route for Putin’s war machine. Ukraine Peace Push, No Breakthrough: Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin in Moscow and then Zelensky in Kyiv; Ukrainians were told to expect a brutal winter as Russia keeps maximalist demands and the talks reportedly yield “positive” but non-decisive progress. Frontline Reality Check: ISW says Putin may be misled by commanders and overestimates his chances in Donetsk, while Ukraine’s HUR warns Russia still has resources to fight through 2027–2028. German Politics Shock With Putin Echoes: AfD’s historic Saxony-Anhalt win (about 43.8–44%) rattled Chancellor Merz, who vowed reforms and warned of internal security threats; European leaders called it a wake-up call, while Russia-friendly narratives gained momentum. Armenia Orientation Talks: Kremlin says Pashinyan’s Moscow visit is set soon and the agenda centers on Armenia’s EU vs EAEU direction and a possible referendum. Azerbaijan Trade/Cooperation: Putin and Aliyev agreed to intensify contacts on trade, economic, and humanitarian cooperation.

Ukraine Peace Push: US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Zelenskyy in Kyiv after “highly useful” talks with Putin in Moscow, but both sides signaled no breakthrough yet; Zelenskyy said the war is likely to continue into winter and pressed for a “winter package” of air defense, energy support, and LNG, while also calling for trilateral talks with Russia and the US. Diplomacy vs. Fighting: Despite the renewed shuttle, strikes continued as Ukraine reported drone attacks and Zelenskyy linked intensified Russian attacks to the run-up to Russia’s Duma election. Kremlin Position: Moscow repeated its “root causes” framing and insisted on achieving war aims through military means, leaving negotiations constrained by territorial and security demands. German Politics Shock: In Saxony-Anhalt, AfD surged to about 44.4% and won a historic first-place finish, but fell short of a governing majority, deepening uncertainty over Germany’s “firewall” politics. European Neutrality Test: Switzerland’s upcoming referendum on tightening neutrality is increasingly framed as a referendum on whether to keep Russia sanctions. Pope Calls for Peace: Pope Leo XIV urged peace between Russia and Ukraine as attacks on civilian infrastructure intensify.

Ukraine Peace Push (US-Russia): Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow for over three hours, with the Kremlin calling the talks “highly useful” and “substantive” but offering no breakthrough; Putin reiterated Russia’s battlefield confidence and said Ukraine’s strike intensity dropped during the visit window. Ukraine Peace Push (US-Ukraine): The same envoys arrived in Kyiv by train for talks with Volodymyr Zelensky, who said “talks have begun” and that Ukraine is ready for a constructive, security-guarantee-centered discussion; European national security advisers are expected to join parts of the process. Ceasefire/Strikes: Russia and Ukraine agreed to pause attacks on each other’s capitals to enable the diplomacy, but fighting continues elsewhere, including fresh Russian strikes reported in Dnipro and earlier drone waves across multiple regions. Kremlin Terms & Limits: Ukrainian FM Andrii Sybiha said Moscow is not in a position to dictate terms, citing slow Russian advances and heavy losses, while Kremlin-linked sources claim no frontline deal until Russia completes Donetsk goals. Germany Security & Diplomacy: After Germany blamed Russia for a Leipzig airport drone incident, Moscow escalated rhetoric—Lavrov called the accusations “the beginning of a real war” and Germany moved to close Russian diplomatic facilities; Berlin also unveiled a broader anti-sabotage plan targeting drones and hybrid threats. NATO/Defense Industry: Finland advanced NATO’s northern posture by assembling its first F-35 F135 engine, signaling deeper capability along its Russia border. Russia-Ukraine War Narrative: Ukraine’s side argues Russia is not winning and cannot force outcomes, while Russia frames the diplomacy as tied to “root causes” and continued war aims. Russia-China-US Summit Talk: Russia’s deputy foreign minister said a trilateral Putin-Trump-Xi meeting is possible, but only if the agenda and preparations are clear.

Ukraine Peace Push: Putin met US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow for over three hours, with the Kremlin calling talks “substantive” and “extremely frank” and saying the Americans offered a “number of ideas” for ending the war—while Russia stressed battlefield progress and the need to address “root causes,” with no breakthrough announced as the envoys head to Kyiv. Ceasefire in Practice: Moscow ordered a 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv starting at midnight, while Ukraine said it would reciprocate for the same window; both sides also agreed not to hit capitals during the diplomatic mission. Air War Signals: Despite the pause, reports said Russian cruise missiles were detected over Ukraine shortly after the Kremlin meeting, and Zelenskyy accused Russia of striking Kyiv-area airports to disrupt diplomacy. Domestic Crackdown: Russia continued arrests tied to the banned pro-peace Yabloko party, detaining candidates ahead of the Sept. 18-20 State Duma vote. Occupied Crimea Blow: The Kremlin-linked “Popular Front: Everything for Victory” executive Anatoli Chernishov died after an explosion in Crimea attributed to Ukraine. German Politics Watch: Saxony-Anhalt’s state election is set to test the federal coalition as AfD leads, raising stakes for Berlin.

Ukraine War Diplomacy: Putin ordered a 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv starting at midnight as US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow, with talks planned in the Kremlin before they travel to Kyiv for meetings with Zelensky. Kremlin Messaging: Dmitry Peskov framed the pause as tied to “preparation and conduct” of US contacts, while the Kremlin avoided promising new ideas and reiterated its long-standing demands. Pre-Talk Tensions: Zelensky accused Russia of “demonstrative strikes” on Kyiv airports to disrupt the envoys’ visit, as attacks continued elsewhere and overnight strikes reportedly killed and wounded civilians. On-the-Ground Reality: A separate report highlighted how drone attacks are reshaping daily life in Kyiv ahead of winter, with schools and residents forced into shelters more often. Russia-Ukraine Military Context: Ukraine’s SBU headquarters was hit by drones amid the diplomatic push, while officials traded blame over whether any mutual ceasefire proposal was answered.